{"title":"Elpriser prognose syv dage frem — husstandens pris pr. dag og time i DK1 og DK2 med bånd, vind- og soludsigt og træfsikkerhed","publisher":"Elpriser.dk (Elpriser.dk ApS)","license":"CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Kilde: Elpriser.dk, https://elpriser.dk/data/prognose.json","attributions":[{"name":"Energinet","url":"https://www.energidataservice.dk","licence":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Kilde: Energinet (www.energidataservice.dk)"},{"name":"ECMWF","url":"https://www.ecmwf.int","licence":"CC BY 4.0","text":"This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use."}],"landingPage":"https://elpriser.dk/prognose/","method":"https://elpriser.dk/beregningsmetode/#prognose","sources":["Energi Data Service (Energinet) — DayAheadPrices: de kendte day-ahead-priser; GenerationProdTypeExchange og ProductionConsumptionSettlement: produktionen, modellen er trænet på; Forecasts_Hour: Energinets egne vind- og solprognoser som reference","Energi Data Service (Energinet) — DatahubPricelist: nettariffer, Energinets tariffer og elafgift pr. dag","ECMWF open data — IFS-vejrprognosen (00z og 12z) for sytten faste punkter, CC BY 4.0"],"generatedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:28.728Z","meta":{"enabledHorizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"shadowMode":false,"gates":{"day2":{"rmaeMax":0.85,"rpinballMax":0.85,"coverage80":[0.72,0.88],"minScoredDays":30},"days3to7":{"rmaeMax":0.85,"rankCorrMin":0.5,"cheap2HitRateMin":0.55,"coverage80":[0.72,0.88],"minScoredDays":56}},"caveat":"En prognose er et interval, aldrig et tal. Morgendagens priser erstatter den, når de offentliggøres — typisk mellem kl. 13 og 15.","method":"Husstandens pris pr. time i netområdet er spot plus nettarif i timen, Energinets transmission og system, elafgift — gange moms — med de satser, der gælder den dag (strengt: en dag uden en sats udelades og nævnes i meta.missing). Spot er den kendte day-ahead-pris, når den er offentliggjort; ellers prognosens fraktiler (p10/p50/p90) fra en model på ECMWF's vejrprognose for 17 faste punkter, Energinets produktion og markedets seneste priser, med båndet kalibreret på de sidste 90 dages målte fejl; uden en udgivet horisont det typiske niveau: døgnmidlet for samme ugedag i samme måned de seneste tre år. Fordi prisen er monoton i spot, er fraktilerne af husstandens pris fraktilerne af spot lagt sammen med dagens satser."},"units":{"allInOreInclVat":"øre pr. kWh inkl. moms — spot + nettarif i timen + Energinets tariffer + elafgift, gange moms, i landsdelens repræsentative netområde","spotOreExVat":"øre pr. kWh ekskl. moms","outlookMwh":"døgnmiddel af produktionen i MWh pr. time; percentile = andel af de seneste 90 realiserede døgn, der lå lavere","accuracy":"mae og pinball i øre/kWh (spot ekskl. moms); rmae = fejl delt med den naive prognoses; coverage80 = andel dage inden for p10–p90"},"definitions":{"kind":"known = offentliggjorte day-ahead-priser; forecast = en horisont, ejeren har slået til — vist som prognose under indkøring, til portens krav er bestået (horizons[k].gatePassed); typical = døgnmidlet for samme ugedag i samme måned de seneste tre år (ingen prognose).","band":"p10/p50/p90 er fraktilerne af husstandens pris; low/high er p10/p90 (prognose, typisk) eller laveste/højeste time (kendt).","level":"cheap/mid/expensive som ugens egne tredjedele af de syv midtværdier.","outlook":"vind og sol fra prognosekørslen (ECMWF gennem modellen vejr → produktion), offentlig uanset udgivne horisonter; reference er Energinets egen day-ahead-prognose, når den findes.","missing":"dage, der ikke kunne regnes strengt, fordi en sats mangler for dagen — aldrig et lån fra en anden periode."},"regions":[{"region":"DK1","area":{"gridArea":"131","ambiguous":false,"candidates":["131"],"gridCompany":"N1 A/S","regionRepresentative":true},"areaLabel":"N1 A/S","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T03:17:13.479Z","weatherRun":{"model":"ifs-oper-0p25","runAt":"2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z"},"modelId":"a2-2026-10-13","stale":false,"state":"forecast","thresholds":{"cheapAtOrBelow":176.78,"expensiveAtOrAbove":188.39},"tomorrow":{"day":"2026-10-14","state":"forecast","band":{"p10":154.11,"p50":176.78,"p90":210.52},"avgOre":176.78},"today":{"day":"2026-10-13","hours":[{"hour":0,"allInOreInclVat":182.23,"spotOreInclVat":155.87},{"hour":1,"allInOreInclVat":170.05,"spotOreInclVat":143.69},{"hour":2,"allInOreInclVat":160.86,"spotOreInclVat":134.5},{"hour":3,"allInOreInclVat":153.67,"spotOreInclVat":127.31},{"hour":4,"allInOreInclVat":152.05,"spotOreInclVat":125.69},{"hour":5,"allInOreInclVat":154.25,"spotOreInclVat":127.89},{"hour":6,"allInOreInclVat":190.11,"spotOreInclVat":141.78},{"hour":7,"allInOreInclVat":201.47,"spotOreInclVat":153.14},{"hour":8,"allInOreInclVat":217.84,"spotOreInclVat":169.51},{"hour":9,"allInOreInclVat":205.77,"spotOreInclVat":157.44},{"hour":10,"allInOreInclVat":189.09,"spotOreInclVat":140.76},{"hour":11,"allInOreInclVat":174.26,"spotOreInclVat":125.93},{"hour":12,"allInOreInclVat":162.83,"spotOreInclVat":114.5},{"hour":13,"allInOreInclVat":156.38,"spotOreInclVat":108.05},{"hour":14,"allInOreInclVat":151.12,"spotOreInclVat":102.79},{"hour":15,"allInOreInclVat":158.95,"spotOreInclVat":110.62},{"hour":16,"allInOreInclVat":154.37,"spotOreInclVat":106.04},{"hour":17,"allInOreInclVat":251.4,"spotOreInclVat":137.18},{"hour":18,"allInOreInclVat":269.07,"spotOreInclVat":154.85},{"hour":19,"allInOreInclVat":266.99,"spotOreInclVat":152.77},{"hour":20,"allInOreInclVat":243.07,"spotOreInclVat":128.85},{"hour":21,"allInOreInclVat":164.91,"spotOreInclVat":116.58},{"hour":22,"allInOreInclVat":159.62,"spotOreInclVat":111.29},{"hour":23,"allInOreInclVat":143.35,"spotOreInclVat":95.02}],"nowIndex":6},"horizons":[{"horizon":1,"enabled":true,"gatePassed":null,"n":0,"needed":30},{"horizon":2,"enabled":true,"gatePassed":null,"n":0,"needed":30},{"horizon":3,"enabled":true,"gatePassed":null,"n":0,"needed":56},{"horizon":4,"enabled":true,"gatePassed":null,"n":0,"needed":56},{"horizon":5,"enabled":true,"gatePassed":null,"n":0,"needed":56},{"horizon":6,"enabled":true,"gatePassed":null,"n":0,"needed":56},{"horizon":7,"enabled":true,"gatePassed":null,"n":0,"needed":56}],"days":[{"day":"2026-10-14","weekday":3,"horizonDay":1,"kind":"forecast","level":"cheap","allInOreInclVat":{"central":176.78,"low":154.11,"high":210.52,"band":{"p10":154.11,"p50":176.78,"p90":210.52}},"spotCentralOreExVat":98.38,"partsOreExVat":{"gridOre":30.749,"energinetOre":11.5,"taxOre":0.8,"vatFactor":1.25},"fixedShare":0.3,"basis":null,"outlook":{"wind":{"level":"høj","mwh":2857,"percentile":80},"solar":{"level":"lav","mwh":375,"percentile":24},"reference":null,"basis":"percentil mod de seneste 90 døgns realiserede produktion i prisområdet (Energinets timetal); lav/middel/høj er 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